Ron Paul: “It’s The Largest Financial Bubble In History” a financial history of the world

Thanks for explaining the concept of inflation. No matter how many times I looked it up, I never understood it.

Pump and dump, rinse and repeat. You don't have to wait for the USA to become Venezuela, it already has. The demon rats have diluted the value of your money by 50% to fund absurd pork. They have run amok with the Treasury, and it is no accidental coincidence. They are a communist torpedo. The most significant communists are plutocrats. Money is a great servant but a cruel master.

There is a good deal to be learned by studying how depression triggers aligned in the past. So, to understand why the "Great Depression" occurred in the 1930s, one must look at what occurred during the years building up to the crash.

A significant amount of the credit made available during the 1920s went into land speculation. A good primer on what occurred is found in the book "Only Yesterday" by historian Frederick Lewis Allen. Not only did investors become captured by the frenzy of the Florida land boom, this same frenzy occurred in many cities in response to population increases that triggered a significant increase in the demand for both commercial and residential land. An agricultural land boom also occurred during the First World War, during which time farmers borrowed heavily to expand their land holdings and production. A few years was required after the war ended for European farmers to recover, but by the mid-1920s global production exceeded demand, prices fell, farmers defaulted on loans when government guarantees were removed, and rural banks failed by the hundreds.

As the land boom crashed, investors shifted heavily into the stock market, driving up prices well beyond what any fundamentals supported. Thus, by the end of 1929 the U.S. economy was stressed across almost all areas of production as well in the financial markets. To be sure, imprudent bank lending deepened the crash and lengthened its duration, but it was a crash in the making because of the failure to utilize tax policy to tame the credit-fueled, speculation-driven land markets. A few economists (e.g., Harry Gunnison Brown, Scott Nearing and John R. Commons) had argued the case made in the late 19th century by Henry George, who showed that cyclical booms and busts would be tamed only if the full or nearly-full public capture of the potential annual rental value of land and of rents from other sources (e.g., the broadcast spectrum) became public policy.

Harry Gunnison Brown was joined over the succeeding decades by a small group of economics professors who continued to make Henry George's case. One could argue that recessions that began again following the end of the Second World War would have been even worse if local governments did not capture some land rent via the taxation of real estate. However, as land prices climbed property assessments rarely kept pace. This made speculation in land an even more profitable investment.

Relying on out-of-date assessed valuations rather than current market values created a serious analytical problem for government statisticians. They simply did not understand that any increase in the price of land is inflationary and did not include such increases in their calculation of inflation. Another failure has been to accurately calculate the annual aggregate rent that is privately captured as unearned income (whether imputed or actual). Since the administration of Ronald Reagan, the federal government has not monitored land prices. The figures utilized in the econometric models relied upon by the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve are around 5 percent of the actual potential rent in the economy (see Joseph Stiglitz or Mason Gaffney on this particular problem).

I offer here a very rough estimate of the rent attached to just one part of the economy, the residential property market. At mid-2020, the median price of a single-family property was around $295,000. There are about 140 million existing housing units in the United States. If we assume a fairly conservative median land-to-total value ratio of 35%, this means that the aggregate residential land value in the U.S. is $103,250 per property, multiplied by 140 million = $14,455,000,000,000 ($14.455 trillion). Economic theory tells us that this aggregate land price occurs because of the capitalization of the net amount of rent that remains in private hands after taxation. If most or all of the rent were captured via taxation there would be nothing to be capitalized and land prices would fall to very close to zero. What the rent fund might be depends on the discount rate. If we assume that investors will invest in land if they can obtain an annual increase of 5%, the the rent fund would be calculated as follows: 5% of $14.455 trillion = $722.75 billion of rent JUST for the land under existing residential buildings. Add in the number of vacant residential lots around the U.S. and this figure will increase considerably.

Tragically, the public capture of land rent never became public policy, allowing the land market cycle to operate from boom to bust. It is on schedule to crash again in 2026. I have prepared a relatively short video in support of this forecast for anyone who reads this and has an interest in more details:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmA6ZPs-wus

he never amounted to much in politics… I trust his forecast in economics as much as with politics…

Guess what is exploding instead of gold … and is slowly but steadily taking its market cap

that dudes a sharp knife #yeahyeah

USA will not be in a recession as long as the rest of the world is onboard with the illusion that the USD is still a solid legal tender for international transactions. The collapse of oil and adoption of cryptocurencies by world governments will together be the nail in the coffin perhaps

Gold miners are cheap compared to gold. Miner ETF GDX is -50% from all time highs (ATH), Gold is -4% from ATH.

Most people are so damn poor that they couldn’t buy even an ounce of gold. We are living paycheck to paycheck hoping that the world doesn’t turn to crap!! I respect Ron Paul and his true wealth is his faith in Jesus!!

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjID3RUc6zofzbWOka15NgV9WCB3gTIll

A plan World wide !

It might be a paradigm shift that we don't yet understand..
If people still believe in the purchasing poser of currency, and the financial systems still work, then it works

Inflation has been taking place for years
Take a look at building materials….autos…..

"I've done a bit of digging"
***literally just googled "Ron Paul Portfolio"

Barring some major geopolitical catastrophe, the “classic “ way for the bubble to burst would be a runaway inflation forcing the fed to raise interest rates.

Um, yes

Reminds me of a line from the big short.
MB: I am not wrong, I might be just early.
INVESTOR: it's the same thing!
Event forecast without a timeline is meaningless.

How can a bubble last 50 years. That’s doesn’t make sense.

Gold, silver and lead… lots and lots of lead.. and multiple means of dispersing it to those who will desperately want it. If this thing is worse than the Great Depression, then the government will collapse.. ANTIFA and other anarchists will come looking for your stuff, like food for instance, and you will either give them your food or you will give them some of your lead..

I agree with Ron. I do however believe that the downside will be initiated by something we don't expect.